Strategic Models in Modern Football: A Comparative Analysis of Three Promoted Clubs in 2024-2025
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2024-2025 SEASON ANALYSISFC St. Pauli
Revenue sacrificed for identity
AS Saint-Étienne
Goals conceded (worst in 70 years)
CD Leganés
Diomande sale (free → €20M)
KEY STRATEGIC INSIGHTS
Identity Creates Resilience
Cultural alignment > Financial optimization for survival
Context Beats Strategy
Sophisticated models fail without temporal alignment
Hidden Value Exists
Financial success ≠ Sporting success in MCO structures
Three Paths to Survival: Identity vs Innovation vs Convention
Executive Summary: The Promotion Paradox
The 2024-2025 season provides a fascinating laboratory for examining how different ownership philosophies and strategic models perform when tested by the brutal realities of top-tier European football. This synthesis examines three promoted clubs—FC St. Pauli (Bundesliga), AS Saint-Étienne (Ligue 1), and CD Leganés (LaLiga)—each representing a distinct approach to the fundamental challenge of survival after promotion.
The analysis reveals a central paradox: while traditional metrics would classify two of these clubs as failures (both Saint-Étienne and Leganés were relegated), the reality is far more nuanced. Each club's "success" or "failure" depends entirely on whose perspective we adopt—the club's, the ownership's, or the supporters'. Through the lens of Skyggni's Strategic Market Index for Investment (SIMI), we can understand how market inefficiencies, cultural identity, and ownership structures create wildly different definitions of success in modern football.
Different Models
Survived
Relegated
Chapter 1: The Three Models - Philosophy Meets Reality
1.1 FC St. Pauli: The Cultural Fortress
FC St. Pauli entered the 2024-2025 Bundesliga season as more than just a promoted club—they arrived as a "subculture," bringing their unique anti-commercial, politically progressive identity to Germany's elite. After thirteen years away from the top flight, their return posed a fundamental question: Can a club that prioritizes democratic governance, social values, and community over commercial optimization survive in modern football's hypercompetitive environment?
The club's approach was defined by deliberate constraints:
Ethical Sponsorship
No betting or crypto deals
Democratic Stadium
Cooperative ownership model
Cultural Filtering
Values-based recruitment
President Oke Göttlich quantified the cost of these principles: approximately €20-30 million in foregone revenue compared to clubs willing to maximize commercial opportunities. This self-imposed handicap forced St. Pauli to adopt what they called a "survival through asceticism" strategy.
1.2 AS Saint-Étienne: The Data-Driven Miscalculation
Saint-Étienne's promotion coincided with a seismic ownership change. Kilmer Sports Ventures (KSV), led by former Arsenal and AC Milan executive Ivan Gazidis, brought a sophisticated, data-driven investment philosophy to one of French football's most storied clubs. Their approach represented the antithesis of St. Pauli's model—a belief that modern analytics and "Moneyball" principles could optimize player recruitment and development.
The new ownership's strategy was clear:
- •Value Investing: Target undervalued young players from secondary markets (SIMI-B and SIMI-C leagues)
- •Long-term Asset Building: Prioritize players with high resale potential over immediate impact
- •Data-Driven Decision Making: Heavy reliance on analytics for recruitment and tactical decisions
This philosophy, while intellectually coherent, proved catastrophically misaligned with the immediate demands of Ligue 1 survival.
1.3 CD Leganés: The Multi-Club Paradox
Leganés represented a third model entirely. Owned by Blue Crow Sports Group (BCSG), the Spanish club was part of a multi-club ownership (MCO) structure that included clubs in Czech Republic, Mexico, and the UAE. BCSG, led by former Houston Astros executive Jeff Luhnow, promised to leverage network synergies and data analytics to create competitive advantages.
The theoretical MCO model suggested:
- •Vertical Integration: Use lower-tier clubs as talent development centers
- •Cost Arbitrage: Source players from inefficient markets through the network
- •Risk Diversification: Spread investment risk across multiple properties
Theoretical MCO Model
- • Vertical Integration
- • Cost Arbitrage
- • Risk Diversification
Actual Implementation
- • Zero MCO synergy
- • Conventional recruitment
- • Club interests neglected
However, the implementation revealed a fundamental conflict between the MCO group's interests and the individual club's survival needs.
Chapter 2: The SIMI Framework - Understanding Market Dynamics
2.1 Quantifying the Challenge
All three clubs faced a similar structural challenge: they were transitioning from environments where they were competitive (SIMI-B leagues) to elite competitions (SIMI-A leagues) where they were structurally disadvantaged. The SIMI index reveals the magnitude of these transitions:
St. Pauli's Jump:
- From: 2. Bundesliga (SIMI-B3) - "Higher economic valorization than many first divisions"
- To: Bundesliga (SIMI-A2) - "Mature market with sound financial management but high acquisition costs"
Saint-Étienne's Leap:
- From: Ligue 2 (SIMI-B2↑) - "One of the best second divisions for developing young talent"
- To: Ligue 1 (SIMI-A3) - "Mature market, major talent exporter, efficiency reduced by TV rights uncertainty"
Leganés's Transition:
- From: Segunda División (Championship equivalent)
- To: LaLiga (SIMI-A2) - "Mature market with excellent quality but exorbitant acquisition costs"
| Club | From (SIMI Rating) | To (SIMI Rating) | Challenge Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pauli | 2. Bundesliga (SIMI-B3) | Bundesliga (SIMI-A2) | High |
| Saint-Étienne | Ligue 2 (SIMI-B2↑) | Ligue 1 (SIMI-A3) | Very High |
| Leganés | Segunda División | LaLiga (SIMI-A2) | Extreme |
2.2 Strategic Responses to Market Realities
Each club's response to these market dynamics revealed their underlying philosophy:
St. Pauli: Monastic Survival
St. Pauli accepted their financial disadvantage and built a strategy around it. They focused on defensive solidity (3rd best defense in the Bundesliga) while accepting offensive limitations (worst attack with only 28 goals). Their approach was essentially "monastic"—survival through discipline and self-denial.
Saint-Étienne: Failed Arbitrage
Saint-Étienne attempted to exploit market inefficiencies by recruiting from lower-cost leagues. They invested €23 million in young players like Lucas Stassin (from Belgium's SIMI-B1) and Zuriko Davitashvili (from Ligue 2's SIMI-B2). However, they critically underinvested in experienced defensive players who knew Ligue 1.
Leganés: Abandoned Innovation
Leganés abandoned innovation entirely, opting for a conventional approach of signing experienced free agents who knew LaLiga. Despite BCSG's "Moneyball" rhetoric, their recruitment was remarkably traditional, focusing on veterans like Marko Dmitrović and Matija Nastasić.
Chapter 3: Recruitment Strategies - Theory Meets Practice
3.1 St. Pauli: The Cultural Filter
St. Pauli's recruitment, led by sporting director Andreas Bornemann, prioritized "systemic fit" over pure talent. Their approach involved:
Summer 2024:
- Morgan Guilavogui (loan from RC Lens): Versatile forward who became top scorer with 6 goals
- Low-cost additions from overlooked markets: Poland's Ekstraklasa, England's League One
- Focus on work rate, tactical discipline, and cultural alignment
Winter 2025 Corrections:
- Noah Weißhaupt (loan from Freiburg): Added pace and attacking threat
- Abdoulie Ceesay (€450k from Estonia): Example of scouting in SIMI-D markets
The recruitment perfectly reflected their survival philosophy—finding players who would buy into a collective, defensive approach rather than individual stars who might disrupt team cohesion.
3.2 Saint-Étienne: The Asset Portfolio
Saint-Étienne's recruitment read like an investment portfolio rather than team building:
| Player | Fee | Origin Market | Strategic Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Stassin | €10M | Belgium (SIMI-B1) | Young striker with high resale value |
| Zuriko Davitashvili | €6M | Ligue 2 (SIMI-B2) | Best young talent from efficient market |
| Augustine Boakye | €3M | Austria (SIMI-C1) | Undervalued "talent factory" |
| Igor Miladinović | €3M | Serbia (SIMI-C1) | Technical player from low-cost market |
Critical Failure: While Stassin (12 goals) and Davitashvili (9 goals, 8 assists) succeeded individually, the team's defensive frailty (77 goals conceded) doomed them. The failure to strengthen the defense in the January window, despite clear evidence of problems, represented a fatal adherence to long-term strategy over short-term needs.
3.3 Leganés: The Conventional Gambit
Despite BCSG's innovative reputation, Leganés's recruitment was strikingly conventional:
- Free Agent Focus: Six experienced players including Dmitrović, Nastasić, and Tapia
- Moderate Investments: €3.8M spent, funded entirely by selling Diego Conde
- Zero MCO Synergy: No players from sister clubs in Czech Republic or elsewhere
Critically, the much-vaunted MCO structure provided no competitive advantage. Instead of receiving players from sister clubs, Leganés sent prospects there for development, creating a "reverse pyramid"that weakened rather than strengthened the first team.
Chapter 4: Tactical Approaches and Results
4.1 Defensive Pragmatism vs. Offensive Ambition
The three clubs' tactical approaches directly reflected their strategic philosophies:
St. Pauli under Alexander Blessin
- Formation: Compact defensive block
- Style: "Horrible to play against" (Blessin's words)
- Results: 41 goals conceded (3rd best), 28 scored (worst)
- Key Metric: 2.15 points per million in wages (2nd best efficiency in Bundesliga)
Saint-Étienne under Dall'Oglio then Horneland
- Initial approach: Attempted to play expansive football
- Crisis response: Changed coaches in December after 8-0 and 5-0 defeats
- Results: 77 goals conceded (worst defensive record in 70 years)
- Fatal flaw: Tactical system required defensive experience the squad lacked
Leganés under Borja Jiménez
- Paradoxical performance: Beat Barcelona and Atlético Madrid
- Critical weakness: Won zero games against bottom-five teams
- Results: 40 points, relegated on final day
- Issue: Could defend against top teams but couldn't break down defensive opponents
4.2 The Survival Mathematics
The final standings revealed the thin margins between success and failure:
| Club | League | Position | Points | GD | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pauli | Bundesliga | 14th | 32 | -13 | Survived |
| Saint-Étienne | Ligue 1 | 17th | 30 | -38 | Relegated |
| Leganés | LaLiga | 18th | 40 | -17 | Relegated |
St. Pauli survived by just 3 points, while Leganés missed survival by only2 points. These razor-thin margins highlight how small strategic differences can have enormous consequences.
Chapter 5: Financial Outcomes and Hidden Successes
5.1 Redefining Success
The traditional view—survival equals success, relegation equals failure—proves inadequate when examining these cases:
St. Pauli's Pyrrhic Victory
- • Survived but at what cost? Self-imposed revenue constraints of €20-30M
- • Created a sustainable model but with permanent competitive disadvantage
- • Success depends on whether you value identity or ambition
Saint-Étienne's Asset Appreciation
- • Relegated but increased player values significantly
- • Stassin and Davitashvili's market values soared despite team failure
- • KSV built assets for the future while failing in the present
Leganés's Hidden Triumph
- • Relegated but sold Yan Diomande for €20M (recruited for free in January)
- • This single sale recovered over half of BCSG's initial investment
- • The MCO model succeeded financially while failing sportively
5.2 The Yan Diomande Revelation
The Diomande sale illuminates BCSG's true strategy. The 18-year-old was:
- Recruited from a US academy for free
- Registered with Leganés B
- Given 10 LaLiga appearances to showcase his talent
- Sold to RB Leipzig for €20M
This transaction reveals that BCSG operated more like a hedge fund than a traditional football club owner, running parallel strategies:
- • Low-cost survival attempt with veteran free agents
- • High-upside talent development through the B team and MCO network
The relegation was unfortunate for the club but not catastrophic for the ownership group, which had successfully monetized its "call options" on young talent.
Chapter 6: Leadership and Governance Models
The three ownership groups demonstrated vastly different governance approaches:
St. Pauli's Democratic Continuity
- • President Oke Göttlich (since 2014)
- • Sporting Director Andreas Bornemann (since 2019)
- • Maintained course despite pressure, no panic decisions
- • Clear communication of limited ambitions to manage expectations
"Every season we spend in the Bundesliga is a successful season" - Göttlich
Saint-Étienne's Technocratic Disruption
- • New executive team: Gazidis, Fahmy, Rosenfeld
- • Retained local coordinator Loïc Perrin but marginalized his influence
- • Decisive but misguided: Fired coach mid-season but didn't address squad issues
- • Prioritized long-term vision over immediate needs
Failed by promising "evolution not revolution" while implementing a revolution
Leganés's Absentee Analytics
- • Appointed new sporting director Andrés Pardo... in March 2025
- • Summer recruitment handled by previous structure
- • Disconnect between ownership rhetoric and on-ground implementation
- • MCO structure existed but provided no practical benefit
BCSG's vision never properly communicated or implemented at club level
6.2 The Communication Challenge
Each ownership group faced the challenge of explaining their approach to stakeholders:
St. Pauli succeeded by setting modest expectations: "Every season we spend in the Bundesliga is a successful season" (Göttlich). This honesty created patience and unity.
Saint-Étienne failed by promising "evolution not revolution" while implementing a revolution. The disconnect between words and actions created confusion and resistance.
Leganés suffered from absent leadership, with BCSG's vision never properly communicated or implemented at club level, creating a vacuum filled by conventional thinking.
Chapter 7: Lessons for Modern Football
7.1 The Promotion Paradox
All three cases illustrate what we might call the "Promotion Paradox": the very achievement that elevates a club (promotion) simultaneously places it in a position of maximum vulnerability.The strategies that work in second-tier leagues—whether St. Pauli's community focus, Saint-Étienne's talent development, or Leganés's conventional approach—often prove inadequate for top-tier survival.
7.2 Market Efficiency and Club Strategy
The SIMI framework reveals crucial insights:
Market Position Dictates Strategy
Clubs must align their approach with their market reality. St. Pauli understood this and adapted; Saint-Étienne did not.
Arbitrage Opportunities Exist but Require Time
Saint-Étienne correctly identified value in SIMI-B and C markets but underestimated adaptation time for players from these leagues.
Networks Don't Automatically Create Synergies
Leganés proved that MCO structures require active management and clear priorities to generate value.
7.3 The Multi-Stakeholder Challenge
Modern football clubs serve multiple masters:
- Supporters want sporting success and cultural authenticity
- Owners seek return on investment (financial or otherwise)
- Players pursue career development and market value
- Communities desire representation and civic pride
Each ownership model prioritized different stakeholders:
- • St. Pauli explicitly chose supporters and community over pure sporting ambition
- • Saint-Étienne prioritized owner investment returns over immediate sporting needs
- • Leganés (BCSG) served ownership financial interests while neglecting sporting requirements
7.4 Strategic Recommendations
Based on these case studies, several principles emerge for clubs facing similar challenges:
For Promoted Clubs:
For Multi-Club Ownership Groups:
For Data-Driven Approaches:
Chapter 8: The Future of Football Ownership
8.1 The Diversification of Success Metrics
These three cases suggest football is entering an era where "success" has multiple, sometimes contradictory definitions:
- Sporting Success: Traditional league position and trophies
- Financial Success: Asset appreciation and transfer profits
- Cultural Success: Maintaining identity and community connection
- Strategic Success: Building sustainable competitive advantages
St. Pauli achieved cultural success while accepting sporting limitations. BCSG achieved financial success despite sporting failure. Only Saint-Étienne failed across all metrics by pursuing financial success through methods that undermined sporting performance.
8.2 The Sustainability Question
Looking beyond single seasons, each model faces sustainability challenges:
St. Pauli's Model
Can they maintain Bundesliga status indefinitely while refusing commercial optimization? History suggests this becomes increasingly difficult as competitive disadvantages compound over time.
The KSV Approach
Will Saint-Étienne's young assets appreciate enough to justify relegation? Can they return to Ligue 1 with a more balanced approach?
The MCO Model
As more groups adopt multi-club structures, will first-mover advantages disappear? Will regulation eventually limit player movement between related clubs?
8.3 Implications for Football Governance
These cases raise fundamental questions about football's regulatory framework:
- •Should financial fair play rules account for self-imposed commercial restrictions like St. Pauli's?
- •How should MCO structures be regulated to prevent conflicts between group and club interests?
- •What protections exist for promoted clubs facing structural disadvantages in top leagues?
Conclusion: Three Paths, Three Philosophies, One Reality
The 2024-2025 season's promoted clubs offer a microcosm of modern football's tensions and possibilities. Each represented a different answer to the fundamental question: How should a football club be run in the 21st century?
St. Pauli proved that cultural identity can be a source of strength, creating resilience and unity that purely commercial clubs struggle to match. Their survival, achieved through defensive discipline and collective sacrifice, vindicated their model—at least for one season. Yet their acceptance of permanent financial disadvantage raises questions about long-term viability in an increasingly commercialized sport.
Saint-Étienne demonstrated the dangers of misapplying sophisticated strategies to inappropriate contexts. Their data-driven, asset-focused approach might work for an established club but proved disastrous for a promoted team needing immediate results. The relegation serves as a cautionary tale about the importance of temporal alignment between strategy and situation.
Leganés revealed both the potential and perils of multi-club ownership. While BCSG extracted enormous value through the Diomande sale, they failed to leverage their network for competitive advantage. The case suggests MCO structures may serve ownership interests at the expense of individual club success—a trend with profound implications for football's future.
The Universal Truth
Ultimately, these three stories converge on a single truth: in modern football, there is no universal formula for success. Context, timing, and stakeholder alignment matter more than any strategic doctrine. The clubs that survive and thrive will be those that honestly assess their situation, clearly communicate their priorities, and ensure their methods match their circumstances.
The beautiful game, it seems, has become a complex ecosystem where multiple species of clubs can coexist, each adapted to its own niche. The question for the future is not which model will dominate, but how football can maintain competitive balance and sporting integrity while accommodating such diverse approaches to the fundamental challenge of building a successful club.
As these three promoted clubs learned in 2024-2025, the price of admission to elite football is high, but the cost of staying there depends entirely on what you're willing to sacrifice—and what you're trying to achieve.
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